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Ethiopia’s projected leap from $3 billion to $10 billion in annual export revenue in the space of three years is remarkable by any measure but the more significant story may be what is driving it and what it reveals about the direction of the country’s economic transformation.
At the fourth Made in Ethiopia Expo, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed described a domestic manufacturing sector that has moved from stagnation to momentum: average production capacity utilisation has soared from 47% to 67%, more than 2,800 domestic and foreign direct investments have been attracted over four years, and more than $4.85 billion in foreign exchange has been saved through import substitution in the first nine months of the 2018 Ethiopian fiscal year alone. “It is truly an honour to witness the tangible realisation of our national vision at this year’s Made in Ethiopia Expo,” said Ahmed on his social media account.
The government has designated 96 specific products for domestic production as part of a comprehensive import substitution strategy, with a strategic focus on the ceramics industry. Plans to double the $14.5 billion in import-substitute goods generated over the past four years are already in motion. The 10.2% economic expansion the Prime Minister cited spans agriculture, mining, manufacturing, tourism and technology, a breadth of sectoral contribution that suggests the growth is structural rather than commodity-dependent. Whether Ethiopia can sustain that trajectory as global economic uncertainty weighs on export markets will be the defining test of the policies now delivering these numbers.
