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In a global environment shaped by Middle East conflict, disrupted supply chains and rising commodity prices, Rwanda’s first-quarter 2026 economic performance delivered a counterintuitive result. The country’s external position improved sharply, providing a crucial buffer at precisely the moment it was needed most.
Exports grew by 63% in the first quarter, driven by sustained productivity gains in coffee, tea, minerals and manufacturing. The trade deficit narrowed by 23%. The Rwandan franc depreciated by just 0.5% over the period, a level of stability that reflects the direct impact of stronger export earnings on currency pressure. Foreign exchange reserves remained at comfortable levels, covering more than four months of imports. National Bank of Rwanda Governor Soraya Hakuziyaremye noted what is driving the results. “The strong performance in exports is not accidental. It reflects sustained investments in productivity, particularly in coffee, tea, minerals and manufacturing. Even under global pressure, Rwanda is increasingly able to compete and earn more from international markets,” said Hakuziyaremye.
The global backdrop against which these results were achieved matters. Approximately 20% of global oil flows pass through trade routes disrupted by the Middle East conflict, contributing to higher fuel and transport costs that have filtered directly into Rwanda’s domestic economy. Headline inflation reached 13% in April 2026, driven by fuel price increases and supply constraints in food and energy markets. Full-year inflation is projected to average 13.9% before gradually easing to 7.4% in 2027. In response, the Monetary Policy Committee raised the Central Bank Rate from 7.25% to 8.25%. “The decision is a measured step to bring inflation back within target and safeguard the purchasing power of Rwandans,” noted Hakuziyaremye.
The first quarter picture is therefore one of genuine tension, with inflationary pressure building from the outside whilst export performance builds resilience from within. Economic activity grew strongly, with the central bank’s composite index showing 16.5% growth in aggregate demand across trade, transport and financial services. The risks ahead of persistent global conflict, possible declines in tea and coffee prices and rising import costs are real. Therefore, the export performance provides Rwanda with a stronger foundation than it has had in previous periods of global turbulence. “Even in a volatile global environment, Rwanda is demonstrating that it can grow its export base, reduce its trade deficit and maintain macroeconomic stability. That is an important signal of resilience,” concluded Hakuziyaremye.
