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Production at the €783 million (R14.9 billion) Keliber lithium project in Finland will be phased, with Sibanye-Stillwater citing oversupply in the global lithium market. The Johannesburg-headquartered miner said that last year, prices for lithium concentrate were “well below” the project incentive price of $10,000 to $15,000 LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent). While prices have recovered recently, phased production was “the optimal way forward, given current market conditions.”
Details on how production will be phased have not been disclosed publicly. Sibanye-Stillwater noted that its project shareholder, the Finnish Minerals Group, a government-owned company is finalising its financial contribution including support for working capital requirements. FMG holds a 20% stake in Keliber, which has been designed to produce 15,000 tons per year of lithium hydroxide monohydrate, a key input for lithium batteries.
Benchmark Mineral, an industry consultancy, reports North Asian lithium carbonate prices at $10,400 a ton this year, consistent with late-2024 levels, while the average of four analyst estimates for 2026 sits at $10,685/t.
There is also concern that new lithium production could hit the market quickly. “New supply keeps hitting the market, at the same time as higher-cost, marginal operators are not shuttering operations in sufficient volumes. This is partially driven by strategy or geopolitics: producers do not want to curtail activity in a market that is growing exponentially,” stated Bank of America in November 2025.
Sibanye-Stillwater plans to share more details on Keliber’s phased production at its strategy day on 29 January 2026. A capital markets day will follow in March under the company’s new Chief Executive Officer, Richard Stewart.
